Coupled ice-ocean modeling and predictions

We review the coupled ice-ocean modeling activities aimed at predictions, both in the near term (days to a week) and in the long term (seasonal to decadal) of the polar oceans. First the state of the knowledge of potential predictability is exposed, then an overview is given of the tools available for carrying out such predictions: the observations that can be used to initialize actual predictions, the coupled ice-ocean–modeling, including the fully-coupled Earth System Models for long-term predictions, and data-assimilation techniques. Finally, the performance of existing prediction systems is reviewed, showing that, although more predictive capability remains than what is presently achieved, both the near- and long-term forecasts show skill over trivial predictors. Parallel efforts should therefore be invested into acquiring more observations of the ocean and sea ice, developing new models both in standalone and coupled mode, and improving the data-assimilation techniques

Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter: a non-stationary control law for complex adaptive optics systems on ELTs

We propose a new algorithm for an adaptive optics system control law which allows to reduce the computational burden in the case of an Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) and to deal with non-stationary behaviors of the turbulence. This approach, using Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter and localizations by domain decomposition is called the local ETKF: the pupil of the telescope is split up into various local domains and calculations for the update estimate of the turbulent phase on each domain are performed independently. This data assimilation scheme enables parallel computation of markedly less data during this update step. This adapts the Kalman Filter to large scale systems with a non-stationary turbulence model when the explicit storage and manipulation of extremely large covariance matrices are impossible. First simulation results are given in order to assess the theoretical analysis and to demonstrate the potentiality of this new control law for complex adaptive optics systems on ELTs.Comment: Proceedings of the AO4ELT3 conference; 8 pages, 3 figure

Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic

We present a sensitivity analysis and discuss the probabilistic forecast capabilities of the novel sea ice model neXtSIM used in hindcast mode. The study pertains to the response of the model to the uncertainty on winds using probabilistic forecasts of ice trajectories. neXtSIM is a continuous Lagrangian numerical model that uses an elasto-brittle rheology to simulate the ice response to external forces. The sensitivity analysis is based on a Monte Carlo sampling of 12 members. The response of the model to the uncertainties is evaluated in terms of simulated ice drift distances from their initial positions, and from the mean position of the ensemble, over the mid-term forecast horizon of 10 days. The simulated ice drift is decomposed into advective and diffusive parts that are characterised separately both spatially and temporally and compared to what is obtained with a free-drift model, that is, when the ice rheology does not play any role in the modelled physics of the ice. The seasonal variability of the model sensitivity is presented and shows the role of the ice compactness and rheology in the ice drift response at both local and regional scales in the Arctic. Indeed, the ice drift simulated by neXtSIM in summer is close to the one obtained with the free-drift model, while the more compact and solid ice pack shows a significantly different mechanical and drift behaviour in winter. For the winter period analysed in this study, we also show that, in contrast to the free-drift model, neXtSIM reproduces the sea ice Lagrangian diffusion regimes as found from observed trajectories. The forecast capability of neXtSIM is also evaluated using a large set of real buoy's trajectories and compared to the capability of the free-drift model. We found that neXtSIM performs significantly better in simulating sea ice drift, both in terms of forecast error and as a tool to assist search and rescue operations, although the sources of uncertainties assumed for the present experiment are not sufficient for complete coverage of the observed IABP positions

Local ensemble transform Kalman filter, a fast non-stationary control law for adaptive optics on ELTs: theoretical aspects and first simulation results

We propose a new algorithm for an adaptive optics system control law, based on the Linear Quadratic Gaussian approach and a Kalman Filter adaptation with localizations. It allows to handle non-stationary behaviors, to obtain performance close to the optimality defined with the residual phase variance minimization criterion, and to reduce the computational burden with an intrinsically parallel implementation on the Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs).Comment: This paper was published in Optics Express and is made available as an electronic reprint with the permission of OSA. The paper can be found at the following URL on the OSA website: http://www.opticsinfobase.org/oe/ . Systematic or multiple reproduction or distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means is prohibited and is subject to penalties under la

Bayesian inference of chaotic dynamics by merging data assimilation, machine learning and expectation-maximization

The reconstruction from observations of high-dimensional chaotic dynamics such as geophysical flows is hampered by (ⅰ) the partial and noisy observations that can realistically be obtained, (ⅱ) the need to learn from long time series of data, and (ⅲ) the unstable nature of the dynamics. To achieve such inference from the observations over long time series, it has been suggested to combine data assimilation and machine learning in several ways. We show how to unify these approaches from a Bayesian perspective using expectation-maximization and coordinate descents. In doing so, the model, the state trajectory and model error statistics are estimated all together. Implementations and approximations of these methods are discussed. Finally, we numerically and successfully test the approach on two relevant low-order chaotic models with distinct identifiability

Data assimilation as a learning tool to infer ordinary differential equation representations of dynamical models

Recent progress in machine learning has shown how to forecast and, to some extent, learn the dynamics of a model from its output, resorting in particular to neural networks and deep learning techniques. We will show how the same goal can be directly achieved using data assimilation techniques without leveraging on machine learning software libraries, with a view to high-dimensional models. The dynamics of a model are learned from its observation and an ordinary differential equation (ODE) representation of this model is inferred using a recursive nonlinear regression. Because the method is embedded in a Bayesian data assimilation framework, it can learn from partial and noisy observations of a state trajectory of the physical model. Moreover, a space-wise local representation of the ODE system is introduced and is key to coping with high-dimensional models. It has recently been suggested that neural network architectures could be interpreted as dynamical systems. Reciprocally, we show that our ODE representations are reminiscent of deep learning architectures. Furthermore, numerical analysis considerations of stability shed light on the assets and limitations of the method. The method is illustrated on several chaotic discrete and continuous models of various dimensions, with or without noisy observations, with the goal of identifying or improving the model dynamics, building a surrogate or reduced model, or producing forecasts solely from observations of the physical model

The relationship between the Eddy-Driven Jet Stream and Northern European Sea Level variability

publishedVersio